Tag Archives: Stresstest

EU jobber med ny stresstest av banker. Credit Suisse har kjørt sin modell. Ikke pent.

Jeg nevnte disse nye stresstestene her og resultatene skal diskuteres 23. oktober når EU ledere møtes.

Bloomberg rapporterer idag fra en Credit Suisse analyse gjort med utgangspunkt i den forrige stresstesten i juli. Den gang strøk 8 av 90 testede banker. Ifølge Credit Suisse kommer minst 66 banker til å stryke denne gangen. Jeg gjentar, 66. Ikke 8, men 66.

For å rekapitalisere bankene til de nye kravene, kreves 220 milliarder euro i følge den sveitsiske banken. Akkurat nå er EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) fondet på 250 milliarder euro. Forslaget, som Slovakia nå sier seg enig i, er å øke fondet til 440 milliarder euro.

Societe General, Royal Bank of Scotland, og BNP Paribas har fått bank i dag:
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EU foretar nye stresstester av banker. Siste akt i det greske dramaet er nådd.

Financial Times rapporterer at EU skal foreta nye stresstester av banker. Hvordan skal dette tokles? Og hvor kjapt kan de gjøre dette?

FT rapporterer at stresstestene skal kikke spesielt på nedskrivninger i tilfelle konkurs, eller delvis konkurs.

EUs neste toppmøte er om to uker (men hektisk virksomhet foregår på lavere nivå).

Greske 1-års obligasjoner er nå på 140%.

Noen som sa ‘hårklipp’?

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Mer Irland. Liveblogging.

Irish Times har en god liveblogg oppe og går. Her er noe ny informasjon jeg ikke har sett hittil:

IT: BlackRock, the consultants hired by the Central Bank to verify the tests, have used mortgage losses in the US state of Nevada, one of the worst-hit in the subprime crisis, to benchmark Irish mortgage losses.
15:19

IT: Goodbody analyst Eamonn Hughes says «it’s hard to see either BOI or IL&P avoiding majority state ownership and AIB is already 93% owned»
15:14

IT: Davy analyst Emer Lang said this morning the Bank of Ireland and EBS figures «would be within our range of estimates», while the Irish Life & Perm figure «looks on the high side»
15:12

IT: Expectations are Bank of Ireland will need €4-5 billion, Irish Life & Perm over €3 billion, EBS about €1 billion and AIB in excess of €4.7 billion

Livebloggen kan du følge her, og offentliggjøringen av stresstesten kommer kl. 17.30 norsk tid.

Noe jeg legger merke til er at en direkte respons fra ECB etter stresstesten er kunngjort, ikke vil komme:

IT: Reuters are reporting the European Central Bank will not unveil medium-term funding support for Irish banks this afternoon, «spoiling Ireland’s grand plan for nailing its banking crisis before it is even unveiled».

Siden dette ikke er tilfellet, er hva som skjer i obligasjonsmarkedet viktig:
Her er yield for irske 2-års obligasjoner og her er 10-års(begge fra Bloomberg). Hva tror du yielden står i ca. kl. 17:40?

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Irsk finansminister forbereder ‘signifikant’ restrukturering av banksektoren. For i morgen smeller det.

Michael Noonan 757602t
‘Alles’ øyne er på Irland i morgen. Resultatene av stresstestene som ECB har gjort vil har stor betydning for hvor startporten i reformplanleggingen skal plasseres. Egenkapitalkravene og verdisettingen av aktiva vil gi oss lesere en viss formening om hvor mye penger både sentralbanken og den irske stat må ut med for å holde bankene flytende.

Update: Her er NTB meldingen, som siterer Irish Independent og et mulig 20-25 mrd euro stort hull.

Her er The Irish Times:

Noonan to propose ‘radical’ bank sector restructuring – The Irish Times – Thu, Mar 31, 2011: THE MINISTER for Finance will propose a ground-breaking restructuring of the banks today as the results of Central Bank stress tests will signal the virtual nationalisation of the Irish banking sector.

The results of the tests will lead Michael Noonan to undertake ‘a radical new approach’ to fix the banks, a Government source said.

Mr Noonan will make a ‘watershed’ argument for a EU-wide solution around passing bank losses on to bondholders in response to the tests on Bank of Ireland, AIB, Irish Life and Permanent and EBS building society. Government colleagues last night described it as the first radical policy departure from the previous Fianna Fail-led government.

The Minister will speak for 20 minutes in the Dáil immediately after the announcement of the test results by the Central Bank.

Mr Noonan told Fine Gael TDs and Senators at the party’s parliamentary party meeting last night that the test results would be of major significance and would dominate the news over the weekend.

The results are expected to push Irish Life and Permanent and Bank of Ireland into majority Government control, given the cash requirements they will face. The tests assess the ability of the banks to cover losses arising from unanticipated shocks in the economy.

The banks are expected to require a further €18 billion to €23 billion, pushing the cost of bailing out the banks to well in excess of €60 billion.

This will be the fifth attempt to recapitalise the banks, which have so far cost the State €46 billion.

Bank of Ireland, which is already 36 per cent State owned, has intensified efforts to sell more international businesses in an attempt to reduce the potential size of Government ownership. The bank, which is valued on the market at about €1 billion, may require between €4 billion and €5 billion based on estimated losses under the tests.

Share trading in the State’s two main banks, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks, will be temporarily suspended today, pending the stress test results this afternoon and any subsequent related announcements by the banks.

The Central Bank sought the suspension ‘to avoid the possibility of a disorderly market due to the circulation of information or rumours during the day’.

Shares in Irish Life and Permanent were suspended yesterday morning after it emerged the company is expected to cede majority control to the Government due to the severity of the tests. The company – the only Government-guaranteed bank to avoid taking State cash – is expected to sell its profitable pensions and investments business, Irish Life, to raise cash to cover losses at its banking business Permanent TSB.

Irish Life and Permanent is expected to require more than €3 billion – about 30 times its market value – to meet worst-case mortgage losses estimated in the tests.

The proposed sale of building society EBS to the Cardinal private equity group was halted yesterday after the Government said the consortium’s bid was ‘not sufficiently commercially attractive’ to the State.

The sale process was ended by the National Treasury Management Agency, which manages the Government’s interests in the banking sector, after 15 months of negotiations between the parties.

Cardinal had planned to invest €600 million in EBS but the Government was uncomfortable with the potential cost of future unexpected losses under its proposal. The Cardinal consortium expressed its ‘extreme disappointment’ at Mr Noonan’s decision.

EBS is expected to require about €1 billion, while worst-case losses under the stress tests could push AIB’s bailout significantly higher than its existing €4.7 billion bill.

The requirements of the banks may still change given that talks between the Central Bank and the banks were continuing last night.

BlackRock, the consultants hired by the Central Bank to verify the tests, have used mortgage losses in the US state of Nevada, one of the worst-hit in the subprime crisis, to assess Irish losses.

Senior European sources said last night that the final scope of the tests was a ‘done deal’ following prolonged talks between the Central Bank and the bailout troika of the European Central Bank, the EU Commission and the IMF.

ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet chaired a teleconference meeting of the bank’s governing council from China yesterday to discuss the situation in the Irish banks. A further meeting may be held today as the ECB finalises its response.»

(Foto: Independent.ie)

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Stresstester av banker pågår, forsikringsselskaper er neste sier Finanstilsynet.

Stresstest.pngDet europeiske firkløveret, The European Banking Authority (EBA), European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), the European Commission (EC) og the European Central Bank (ECB) har nok å gjøre for tiden. I skrivende stund utføres stresstester på et utvalg banker, de samme som ble testet forrige gang, men vi skal la banker være banker for ett øyeblikk. (Hvis du absolutt vil vite mer, gå til EBA sin ‘stresstest side’)

For, i en pressemelding fra Finanstilsynet står det:

Den europeiske tilsynsmyndigheten for forsikring og tjenestepensjon (EIOPA) har satt i gang en stresstest for det europeiske forsikringsmarkedet i samarbeid med nasjonale tilsynsmyndigheter. Stresstesten skal omfatte minimum 50 prosent av forsikringsmarkedene målt i premieinntekter i hvert enkelt land, inkludert Norge.

Det er ett år siden de gjorde den samme testen, og i denne sammenvevde verden vi lever i er å skaffe seg oversikt en god ting. Hva vil EIOPA med denne testen sier du?

Building on the experience of the 2009/10 exercise and taking into account new EU regulatory requirements, the aim of this exercise is to test whether the insurance sector in the European Union will be able to meet the minimum capital requirement even after applying well defined stress scenarios. The Solvency II capital requirements already are based on a certain level of prudence for similar risks. For example, groups and undertakings will be required to hold capital at a level so that they can absorb a significant decline in equity prices (based, as much as possible, on the QIS5-Technical Specifications, although reasonable approximations and proxies may be used, where necessary.

In addition to these asset-related stresses, this exercise includes insurance-related shock scenarios in order to test the resilience of the sector to catastrophic or severe insurance events.

This exercise should also be seen as a precursor for the development of a future comprehensive stress test framework in accordance with the EIOPA regulation.

Det nye rammeverket for reguleringer av banker, Basel III, er på vei og forsikringsbransjen følger like etter. Ordbruken er kraftig, ‘to test the resilience of the sector to catastrophic or severe insurance events’, men det er ingen vei utenom. Bildet over er tatt fra Excel-arket som sendes rundt til forsikringsselskapene. I ett annet Excel-ark spør de om det obligatoriske:
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Resultatene skal være klare i juli i år.

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The Federal Reserve har fullført stresstester av de 19 største bankene i USA.

Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), alltid en forkortelse på lur, er fullført og detaljer er sparsomme. Og mulig med god grunn. Hvis noen av bankene ikke består testen, er offentliggjøring et signal the Fed vil unngå/utsette så lenge som mulig. Så the Fed går direkte til banken og gir anbefalinger på bakgrunn av testen. Markedet kikker med lupe på hva banken(e) foretar seg for å oppfylle kravene.

I Norge stresstester ECB DnB Nor, og resultatene er ikke klare ennå.

Federal Reserve completes Analysis of 19 Largest Banks, Allows some Dividends: «From the Federal Reserve:

The Federal Reserve on Friday announced it has completed the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), its cross-institution study of the capital plans of the 19 largest U.S. bank holding companies.

As a result of the CCAR, some firms are expected to increase or restart dividend payments, buy back shares, or repay government capital. The Federal Reserve on Friday will discuss the reviews and its decisions with firms that requested a capital action. All 19 firms will receive more detailed assessments of their capital planning processes next month.

The Fed is not releasing details of these stress tests, and they will notify the 19 banks if they can start paying dividends (expect announcement pretty soon).

(Via Calculated Risk.)

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