Stikkordarkiv: Saudi Arabia

Libya ned, Saudi Arabia opp? Vi følger opp…

Mr. Hamilton ved Econbrowser stilte spørsmålet her og følger nå opp i en bloggpost. Her er mitt favorittutdrag:

Econbrowser: Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict:

One of the key questions in assessing the effect of the Libyan conflict on world oil prices was the extent to which an increase in Saudi production would offset some of the lost output from Libya. Now we know the answer, and it’s not reassuring.

Back on Feb 25, Reuters reported what sounded like some favorable indications:

Top exporter Saudi Arabia has raised oil output above 9 million barrels per day (bpd) to make up for a near halt in Libyan exports, an industry source said, helping prices fall further from the highest since 2008….

The Saudi move follows reassurances from Riyadh earlier in the week that it was prepared to act to prevent shortages as a result of the rebellion in Libya.

Only it later turned out that this production increase was not in response to events in Libya, but in fact had been implemented some months earlier. And this week Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi tried to get us to believe that the Saudis have now gone back to lower production levels because there’s way too much oil being supplied already.

I kid you not. Here’s the quote from Bloomberg:

«Our production in February was 9,125,100 barrels a day,» al-Naimi said, as he arrived in Kuwait for a conference. «In March, it was 8,292,100 barrels. It will probably go a little higher in April. The reason I mention these numbers is to show you the market is oversupplied.»

Vent, ‘the market is oversupplied’? Vil noen vennligst svare oljeminister Ali Al-Naimi?

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Libya, Saudi-Arabia og olje. Hva skjer?

Saudi 1990(Graf: Måntlig endring i oljeproduksjonen etter Gulfkrigen 1990. Data: EIA)

I kveld kan Al-Jazeera melde om at oljeproduksjonen i Libya er redusert fra 1,6 millioner fat om dagen til 500 000. Dette betyr ganske enkelt at noen på produsere mer olje om prisen tilbudet skal holde seg stabilt. Enkle lover om tilbud og etterspørsel gjelder for oljemarkedet, redusert tilbud er lik økt pris. Så hvem kikker man til for å øke produksjonen? James Hamilton ved EconBrowser (som vi har linket til tidligere ang. oljerelaterte artikkler) kikker på Saudi-Arabia og hvordan landet har reagert når tilbudet faller andre steder. Fra Hamilton:

One key question in determining the impact of instability in Libya and elsewhere on world oil markets is how much other countries can and will increase production to offset the shortfall. Here I review the critical role of Saudi Arabia in past disruptions and discuss the current situation.

Prior to the First Persian Gulf War in 1990, Iraq and Kuwait between them accounted for almost 9% of world oil production, which was essentially completely knocked out by the military conflict (see the black line in Figure 1). Fortunately, Saudi Arabia had substantial excess capacity, and their increased production amounted to almost 5% of global supplies at the time (blue line). This was a significant factor in limiting the size and duration of the spike in oil prices, and helped mitigate the severity of the 1990-91 economic recession.

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Saudi oil reserves may be overstated by 40%

Etter å ha gått noen runder i ringen med årets influensavirus, er man tilbake i sporet igjen denne gang med bedre teknikk og smøring. Vi begynner med litt bakgrunnsinfo relatert til en Wikileaks-sak om oppblåste oljereservetall. Her er Econbrowser:

Saudi oil reserves may be overstated by 40%:

Stuart Staniford calls attention to this story from the Guardian:

The U.S. fears that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels– nearly 40%.

Stuart also notes that in his own independent forensic analysis conducted in May 2007 (to which we called the attention of Econbrowser readers at the time), he estimated that remaining reserves in Ghawar (by far the Saudis’ biggest and most important oil field) were overstated by 40%.

(Via Econbrowser-UCSD.)

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