Tag Archives: Ratings

Hele pressemeldingen fra S&P om mulig nedgradering av 15 euroland. Ja, Finland er på lista.

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor’s) Dec. 5, 2011–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
today placed its long-term sovereign ratings on 15 members of the European
Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) on CreditWatch with negative
implications.

We have also maintained the CreditWatch negative status of our long-term
rating on Cyprus and placed its short-term ratings on CreditWatch with
negative implications. The ratings on Greece have not been placed on
CreditWatch. The ratings on the eurozone sovereigns are listed below.

Today’s CreditWatch placements are prompted by our belief that systemic
stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they
now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole.

We believe that these systemic stresses stem from five interrelated factors:

(1) Tightening credit conditions across the eurozone;

(2) Markedly higher risk premiums on a growing number of eurozone sovereigns,
including some that are currently rated ‘AAA’;

(3) Continuing disagreements among European policy makers on how to tackle the
immediate market confidence crisis and, longer term, how to ensure greater
economic, financial, and fiscal convergence among eurozone members;

(4) High levels of government and household indebtedness across a large area
of the eurozone; and

(5) The rising risk of economic recession in the eurozone as a whole in 2012.
Currently, we expect output to decline next year in countries such as Spain,
Portugal and Greece, but we now assign a 40% probability of a fall in output
for the eurozone as a whole.

Our CreditWatch review of eurozone sovereign ratings will focus on three of
the five key factors that form the core of our sovereign ratings methodology:
the «political,» «external,» and «monetary» scores we assign to the
governments in the eurozone (see «Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And
Assumptions», published June 30, 2011). Our analysis of «political dynamics»
will focus on both country-specific and eurozone-wide issues that appear to us
to be limiting the effectiveness of efforts to resolve the market confidence
crisis. Our analysis of «external liquidity» will focus on the borrowing
requirements of both eurozone governments and banks. Our analysis of «monetary
flexibility» will focus on ECB policy settings to address the economic and
financial stresses the countries in the eurozone are increasingly facing.

We expect to conclude our review of eurozone sovereign ratings as soon as
possible following the EU summit scheduled for Dec. 8 and 9, 2011. Depending
on the score changes, if any, that our rating committees agree are appropriate
for each sovereign, we believe that ratings could be lowered by up to one
notch for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and
by up to two notches for the other governments.

Our ratings on Greece (Hellenic Republic; CC/Negative/C) are not affected by
today’s actions, as a ‘CC’ rating under our rating definitions connotes our
belief that there is a relatively high near-term probability of default.

We are publishing separate media releases with the rationale for each rating
action on the 16 CreditWatch actions. We are also publishing the following
article: «Credit FAQ: Factors Behind Our Placement of Eurozone Governments on
CreditWatch».

Following today’s CreditWatch listings, Standard & Poor’s will issue separate
media releases concerning affected ratings on the funds, government-related
entities, financial institutions, insurance companies, public finance, and
structured finance sectors in due course.

RATINGS LIST To From

Long-term ratings on CreditWatch negative

Austria (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+
Belgium (Kingdom of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA/Negative/A-1+

Finland (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

France (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Germany (Federal Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Luxembourg (Grand Duchy of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Netherlands (The) (State of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AAA/Watch Neg/A-1+ AAA/Stable/A-1+

Long- and short-term ratings on CreditWatch negative

Estonia (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+

Ireland (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating BBB+/Watch Neg/A-2 BBB+/Stable/A-2

Italy (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating A/Watch Neg/A-1 A/Negative/A-1

Malta (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating A/Watch Neg/A-1 A/Stable/A-1

Portugal (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB-/Negative/A-3

Slovak Republic
Sovereign Credit Rating A+/Watch Neg/A-1 A+/Positive/A-1

Slovenia (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA-/Stable/A-1+

Spain (Kingdom of)
Sovereign Credit Rating AA-/Watch Neg/A-1+ AA-/Negative/A-1+

Short-term ratings on CreditWatch negative, long-term ratings still on
CreditWatch negative

Cyprus (Republic of)
Sovereign Credit Rating BBB/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB/Watch Neg/A-3

Merket med ,

Norge har AAA rating og her er hvorfor.

De tre store ratingbyråene, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s og Fitch har alle Norge oppe på en AAA rating. Moody’s opprettholdt denne ratingen og gav denne forklaringen i en pressemelding i juli:

Norway’s Aaa sovereign rating reflects the government’s prudent policies and the robustness of its balance sheet, says Moody’s Investors Service in its new sovereign credit report for the country. This strength is underpinned by substantial hydrocarbon reserves and the world’s second-largest sovereign wealth fund. However, high levels of household indebtedness could be a source of risk going forward. The outlook on the rating is stable.

The currently high oil prices have a positive effect on Norway’s economy and government finances given that the country is one of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas. Economic growth has rebounded and Moody’s expects it to be well above trend in 2011-12, due in part to a resurgence in investment activity directly related to higher oil prices. Robust economic activity has also led to higher-than-expected revenue growth, which means that the government will almost certainly outperform the country’s fiscal rule in 2011. This rule states that only 4% of real returns from Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund–Global (GPF-G), should be incorporated into the government’s annual budget.

In the report, Moody’s notes that Norway’s rich hydrocarbons reserves and its large sovereign wealth fund are important sources of strength. The GPF-G makes the Norwegian economy and fiscal position more resilient, as it can be used to cushion the effect of a cyclical downturn on the real economy. It also gives the government increased scope to absorb the future costs of an ageing population.

Moody’s believes that one area of concern for the Norwegian sovereign is the high level of household indebtedness. However, this issue should be kept in perspective as the banking sector is relatively small in comparison to the overall economy and the banks are well capitalised. Nevertheless, this is a source of risk because: (i) the proportion of highly indebted households is significant; (ii) 90% of mortgages are on variable rates; and (iii) economic growth could be adversely affected if an unexpectedly large rise in interest rates were to significantly increase the cost of servicing mortgage debt.

Vi har AAA i stor grad på grunn av olje, og det eneste av bekymring, alvorlig bekymring i følge Moody’s, er den private gjelden. Et viktig poeng er at 90% av lånetakere har flytende rente på lånet sitt og hvis renten øker uvanlig, blir rentebyrden dramatisk. Heldigvis for oss, så tvinger dårlige økonomiske utsikter i resten av verden lave renter i Norge.

Merket med ,

«Det er bare en mening. Ikke ta oss seriøst»

Her er hva et enkelt søk etter ‘Downgrade’ gir på Google News:

Ratings agency Moody’s puts 14 UK banks on review for potential credit rating …

Fitch Downgrades Five Greek Banks

Banks lead FTSE down after Greece downgrade

Greece Downgraded to Junk

Miners hit hard as market is spooked by credit rating downgrade for Italy

Jeg har ingen problemer med å se de underliggende grunnene til at ratingbyråene vurderer endringer i ratings. Kanskje fordi jeg er mer komfortabel med makroøkonomi enn finans, men problemet mitt er at jeg har sett filmen Inside Job:

Merket med