Tag Archives: Jobber

«Waiting for more demand.» Google CEO Eric Schmidt kaller en spade en spade (video)

Christiane Amanpour spør adm. dir. i Google om hvordan amerikanske bedrifter skal bidra til vekst og dermed jobber. «Waiting for more demand.» sier Schmidt. Merk spesielt poenget om hvordan en arbeidsledig vil koste samfunnet mer enn pengene vi ikke bruker på å skaffe vedkommende en job. Hvilken som helst jobb er bedre enn ingen jobb.


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Strukturell ledighet, part deux. Friksjon baby!

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I forhold til den forrige posten må du ikke tro at det dermed er sagt at alle deler konklusjonene nådd. Ved The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (USA) (pdf) er de bekymret for at det kan utvikle seg strukturelle endringer i arbeidsmarkedet slik at hvis man ikke observerer økt friksjonsledighet akkurat nå, tilsier den kvikksanden de arbeidsledige befinner seg i akkurat nå at det kan oppstå friksjoner i de neste årene:

Long-term unemployment rose dramatically during the recent recession and remains elevated. A primary cause may be the fact that more workers with inherently low job finding rates have become unemployed. This would suggest that the natural rate of unemployment has increased, and that additional monetary stimulus may have only a limited effect on reducing unemployment.

Merk at

Long-term unemployment rose dramatically during the recent recession and remains elevated….This would suggest that the natural rate of unemployment has increased…

ikke akkurat er det mest definitive språket man bruker i økonomi. ‘This would suggest’ river ingen av hesten!

Alle disse argumentene kan man bruke for å argumentere for at sentralbanken ikke trenger å gjøre mer for de arbeidsledige, rett og slett fordi det ikke vil fungere. Friksjonsledighet kan ikke sentralbanken fikse.

Men husk at ikke alt er friksjonsledighet og at man trenger også grep for de andre ‘vanlige’ ledige.

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Financial Times krever en Obama-restart.

The Financial Times:

It is time for an Obama reset: "Barack Obama, like the US economy whose fate is bound up with his own, is in a slump. Since the shameful debt-ceiling battle, events have landed one blow after another: the Standard & Poor’s downgrade, a run of bad economic figures, crashing markets and growing fears of a second recession. With the US longing for new direction and the president’s ratings badly on the slide, Mr Obama headed off on his summer holiday.

Complaints about that last point, of course, are as unfair as they are traditional. By any standards, especially those of his predecessor in the White House, Mr Obama works hard. But the symbolism was a pity. The vacation followed a puzzling campaign-style bus tour of the Midwest, in which Mr Obama stressed two themes: the need to move beyond partisan squabbling and the irresponsibility of the Republican party. Lately the White House message has, to put it charitably, lacked focus.

Mr Obama has promised to announce a detailed initiative on jobs when Congress returns from its own vacation. Unfortunately this may serve only to underline his limited capacity to influence domestic policy, since the plan will go nowhere without backing in Congress – and it is unlikely to get far while Republicans smelling blood control the House of Representatives.

The best the president can do is rally public support for specific new measures. He could have been doing that in the Midwest. He could be doing it this week. Why the delay? Lack of economics heft in the White House may be a factor: the members of a once-outstanding economics team have left and have not been replaced by experts of like calibre. The ability to frame policy and present it authoritatively is not what it should be.
In broad terms, the needed elements are plain: further short-term stimulus combined with credible longer-term fiscal restraint. Cut the payroll tax, extend jobless benefits and subsidise new jobs; then curb entitlement spending by raising the retirement age. Neither party in Congress is willing to embrace both sides of that proposal. The only hope of changing this is for Mr Obama to reset his presidency. Be bold. Lead more forcefully. Since all else has failed, put a serious plan to the country and win the argument.

Success in this would be far from guaranteed and the political risk is obvious. But the alternative, tactically and substantively, is worse – and Mr Obama no longer has much to lose.

«If the president thinks more should be done, if he thinks there should be more stimulus, why doesn’t he just go for broke? Why doesn’t he go out there and ask for it, make a case for it?» Dette spørsmålet stilte journalisten Savannah Guthrie, vikarierende programleder for søndagsprogrammet ‘Meet The Press’. Spørsmålet ble stilt til tidligere pressetalsmann for Det Hvite Hus, Robert Gibbs.

Og det er svaret på det spørsmålet som er så skuffende. Her er hele Meet The Press (de tøffe spm. starter ca. 8 min inn):
Og her er antall sysselsatte som andel av befolkningen i USA.
6a00e551f080038834015390a5abcf970b Hvis du hører noen si at president Obama har skapt jobber, så er det enkle svaret at det rett og slett ikke er nok til å holde følge med befolkningsveksten.

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