Tag Archives: Jobb

9,2% | Bloomberg oppsummerer konsensus på ØKT ledighet i USA. 9,2%, opp 0,1%png.

Calculated Risk gir oss svake nyheter (ikke for første gang):

On Friday the BLS (Bureau of Labour Statistics) will release the September Employment Situation Summary at 8:30 AM ET. Bloomberg is showing the consensus is for an increase of 65,000 payroll jobs in September, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 9.2% from 9.1% in August.

Overall the economic data for September was fairly weak, though mostly better than in August. The BLS reported zero jobs added in August, so «better» doesn’t mean much. Of course, the Verizon labor dispute subtracted 45,000 payroll jobs in August, and these jobs will be added back in the September report. So better means more than 45,000.

CR oppsummerer amerikanske data her.

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Historier fra «Occupy Wall Street» og menneskene som ser mørkt på fremtiden.

Ezra Klein har gått igjennom Tumblr og hentet ut noen av historiene som amerikanere deler med omverden under parolen ‘We Are The 99 Percent’. Parolen henviser til de 1% hinsides rike, og de 99% ikke så hinsides rike. Her er noen av historiene han fant:

“I am 20K in debt and am paying out of pocket for my current tuition while I start paying back loans with two part time jobs.”

“I am a 28 year old female with debt that had to give up her apartment + pet because I have no money and I owe over $30,000.”

“Married mother of 3. Lost my job in 2009. My family lost our health insurance, our savings, our home, and our good credit. After 16 months, I found a job — with a 90 mile commute and a 25 percent pay cut. After gas, tolls, daycare, and the cost of health insurance, i was paying so my kids had access to health care.”

“I am young. I am educated and hard working. I am not able to pay my bills. I am afraid of what the future holds.”

i am a 19 year old student with 18 credit hours and 2 part time jobs. i am over 4000 dollars in debt but my paychecks are just enough to get me to school and back. next year my plan was to attend a 4 year college and get my bfa, but now i am afraid that without a co-signer i will have no shot at a loan and even if i can get a loan i am afraid that i will leave college with no future and a crippling debt.”

“I went to graduate school believing that there might be some financial security afforded by a higher degree, and that with that security I could finally buy my mom her own house and take care of her. Instead, I have wasted six years of my life.”

“I am a 27 year old with a bachelor degree. I ran out of my student loans while trying to find a job. I am ‘living’ with my mother again to get back on my feet. So far, the best I can do is a part time retail job paying $8 an hour. I am hearing impaired with cochlear implant. My cochlear implant warranty expired. I do not have the money to renew it. How can I work at my new minimum wage job when my implant is broken? I need it to HEAR.”

Den siste gjør vondt. Fysisk vondt.

Klein oppsummerer:

But this is why I’m taking Occupy Wall Street — or, perhaps more specifically, the ‘We Are The 99 Percent’ movement — seriously. There are a lot of people who are getting an unusually raw deal right now. There is a small group of people who are getting an unusually good deal right now. That doesn’t sound to me like a stable equilibrium.

Les hele artikkelen her.

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Supply vs. Demand | Når det er snakk om jobbskapning er det vel ikke så viktig hva som kom først?

Først denne:Screen shot 2011 10 04 at 15 18 26(e24.no)

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.1 million SAAR in September: «Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 13.1 million SAAR in September. That is up 11.2% from September 2010, and up 8.3% from the sales rate last month (12.1 million SAAR in Aug 2011).

This was well above the consensus forecast of 12.6 million SAAR.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for September (red, light vehicle sales of 13.1 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

Vehicle SalesClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This was close to the sales rate in April and close to the high for the year.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession. This also shows the impact of the tsunami and supply chain issues on sales, especially in May and June.

Vehicle SalesNote: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

Growth in auto sales should make a positive contribution to Q3 GDP as sales bounced back from the May and June lows. Sales in Q3 have averaged 12.5 million SAAR, above the 12.1 million SAAR average in Q2.

Så denne:
Screen shot 2011 10 04 at 15 19 28

Demand 1 – Supply 0

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1. september annonserer Barack Obama sin jobbplan. Hva er i den tro?

Tenkte jeg skulle surfe litt rundt å hente inn litt informasjon om denne planen president Obama har tenkt å annonsere (endelig!) for å takle arbeidsløsheten og den seige veksten i USA. Hva kan vi forvente av tiltak, hva har lekket til media:

  • An extension of federal funding for emergency unemployment benefits
  • An extension of the payroll tax holiday, possibly expanded to include the employers’ portion of Social Security taxes
  • An extension of temporary businesses «expensing» of capital investments
  • A new tax credit for businesses that increase the size of their workforce
  • Infrastructure spending, perhaps including renovation of public schools
  • A job-training program targeting the long-term unemployed, possibly modeled after a program in Georgia
  • To pay for these short-run initiatives, the President may seek more long-term deficit reduction than called for under the recent debt ceiling deal

Den første er arbeidsledighetstrygd. Og økt finansiering. Effektene av arbeidsledighetstrygd i en slik svak økonomi som USAs er usikre. Noen mener at multiplikatoren til arbeidsledighetstrygd er høy, dvs. at trygden brukes i økonomien og ringeffektene er større enn andre tiltak. Andre mener på den andre siden at trygden reduserer incentiver arbeidsledige har for å kikke etter en jobb, og vil også forsinke omtrening av arbeidstakere. Noe forskning sier at å IKKE forlenge ledighetstrygd vil faktisk REDUSERE den naturlige arbeidsledighetsraten i økonomien. Usikkert på om dette er under normale omstendigheter eller i en depressiv økonomi.

Den andre er en skattefri dag, foreslått å inkludere arbeidsgivers andel av pensjonen.

Ellers er det andre skatteregler som skal innføres for å gjøre det enklere for bedrifter å ansette, samt penger for ett omtreningsprogram for å gjøre ‘matching’ av jobb og jobbsøkere lettere.

Se særlig etter infrastrukturinvesteringer. Denne er komplisert. I normale tider, med lave renter, ville infrastrukturinvesteringer gi dramatiske effekter i økonomien, gitt at investeringen var stor nok. Multiplikatoren på slike investeringer er høy, men vanskelig å rettferdiggjøre i dagens politiske klima i USA. Den må være stor nok for å kunne gjøre noe med ledigheten, som er på 9,1%.

I den situasjonen USA befinner seg nå er det ikke så altfor mye finanspolitikken kan gjøre for økonomien, 1) fordi politisk polarisering gjør det umulig å få til noe på selv ‘mini-New Deal’ plan og 2) poenget er at den er både kortsiktig til nytte og langsiktig til nytte, noe som er vanskelig å se for seg.

Economics, the dismal science indeed.

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På en skala fra 1 til 10, er dette en 8’er i dårlige nyheter.

Arbeidsledigheten i USA stagnerer rundt 9,1% idag, med skuffende tall fra den private sektor. Også andelen sysselsatte i forhold til befolkningen har stagnert. Dette er dårlige nyheter for alle. Fra Bureau of Labor:

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+54,000) in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains continued in professional and business services, health care, and mining. Employment levels in other major private-sector industries were little changed, and local government employment continued to decline.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +221,000 to +194,000, and the change for April was revised from +244,000 to +232,000.

Slik som det politiske miljøet er i Washington nå, er faktisk mannen som har størst innflytelse i øyeblikket sentralbanksjef Ben Bernanke.

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