Okuns lov lever #HøystNerdete

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(Oppdatering: Bill Mitchell skriver om Okuns lov for Australia. Klart det er grafer, hvorfor spør du?)

Hos Econbrowser skriver Lawrence Ball, Daniel Leigh og Prakash Loungani om forholdet mellom arbeidsledighet og økonomisk vekst. (Personlig flashback fra noen timer foran en tavle)

It is rare to call an economic relationship a “law.” But Okun’s Law has earned its name. In 1962, Arthur Okun found a relationship that has become enshrined in textbooks as Okun’s Law. The textbook version states when U.S. output dips one percent below its potential, unemployment rises above its natural rate by about half a percentage point.

Fifty years after Okun’s paper, we find that this relationship fits very well, including during the Great Recession. Deviations from Okun’s Law occur, but they are usually modest in size and short-lived. Our results imply that it is a fallacy to claim that the last three U.S. recoveries have been “jobless recoveries”. Rather, the recoveries have been slow, and the slow job growth that has resulted has been just about what one would expect based on Okun’s Law.

Selvfølgelig er det grafer også.
(United States: Okun’s Law, 1948-2011 (Annual data) (Natural Rates Based on Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter with λ = 100))NewImage
Fra siste paragraf:

Does Okun’s Law hold outside the U.S.? In our NBER working paper, which was released this week and presented earlier at the IMF’s Annual Research Conference, we also report estimates of Okun’s Law for twenty advanced countries since 1980. While a stable Law fits the data for most countries, the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one-percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies across countries. We estimate, for example, that the coefficient is –0.15 in Japan, –0.45 in the United States, and –0.85 in Spain. These differences reflect special features of national labor markets, such as Japan’s tradition of lifetime employment and the prevalence of temporary employment contracts in Spain.

The bottom-line: Okun’s Law is not as universal as the law of gravity (which has the same parameters in all advanced economies), but it is strong and stable by the standards of macroeconomics.

Les hele her

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