Ingen «lønn-pris»-spiral for deg. #UK #svimmel

Over ser du forholdet mellom lønn og priser i Storbritannia mellom 1956 og 1979.

Under ser du det samme forholdet fra 2005:
Det er Simon Wren-Lewis som kommenterer:

Since the recession hit, we have seen a marked reversal: consumer price inflation has been above wage inflation. There is absolutely no sign of an imminent wage price spiral. (The data for wage inflation I use here comes from the OECD, but if we use the ONS’s average earnings index the latest numbers for Aug-Oct 2012 show wage inflation of only 1.8%.) The only remotely similar period since 1955 was the early 1980s, when inflation was rapidly falling. (Whether the behaviour of real wages over the recent period is unusual given unemployment is examined here.)

I can put the same point another way. If the Bank of England had been given a target for wage inflation as well as its price inflation target, that target would probably have been 4%, reflecting the normal (pre recession) divergence between the two series. If it had only been given a 4% wage inflation target (and there is no clear reason why this should not have happened), then given the numbers above I assume Andrew Sentance would be complaining that the Bank of England had been doing too little to stimulate the economy. This just shows the danger of having a mandated target for just one inflation measure that I talked about here.

%d bloggere like this: