Jeg fant, jeg fant! Jeg fant forskning på uføretrygd. #RandomizationInNorway

«Uføretrydprogrammer har lenge blitt kritisert av økonomer for å tilsynelatende føre til økt fravær»

Slik starter en artikkel (pdf) av Andreas Ravndal Kostøl (SSB og UiB) og Magne Mogstad (SSB og University College London), publisert i july i år. Den fortsetter (meg):

However, there is little empirical evidence of the effectiveness of programs that incentivize the return to work by DI recipients. Using a local randomized experiment that arises from a sharp discontinuity in DI policy in Norway, we provide transparent and credible identification of how financial incentives induce DI recipients to return to work.

Dette skal bli interessant lesing. UK har «Pathways To Work», USA har «$1 for $2 offset» (fengende?) I januar 2005 hadde Norge et program.

Artikkelforfatterne benytter seg av et uføretrygdprogram som gir redusert trygd for lønn. Altså mer lønnsomt å jobbe fordi for hver $1 i lønn reduseres trygd med $0,6. Netto skal det derfor lønne seg å jobbe.

Her er tre konklusjoner:

The insights from our RD analysis may be summarized with three broad conclusions.

First, many DI recipients have a considerable capacity to work that can be effectively induced by providing financial work incentives. Three years after implementaton, the return-to-work program has increased the labor force participation of DI recipients aged 18-49 by 8 percentage points. In comparison, less than 2 percent of the control group participated in the labor force, and labor force participation among rejected DI applicants of the same age was approximately 30 percent.

Second, the return-to-work program produced a large increase in the earnings of DI recipients. These gains were accompanied by a small increase in disposable income and a substantial reduction in the cost of the program. The reduction in costs is attributable to a significant decrease in benefits and a small increase in the taxes paid by DI recipients.

Third, there is significant heterogeneity in the responsiveness to financial work incentives, indicating that targeted policies may be most effective in inducing DI recipients to return to work. Among DI recipients aged 50-61, who are approaching the retirement age, there is no evidence of any impact of the program. Within the group of DI recipients aged 18-49, the estimates vary substantially, with males, highly educated individuals, and people in areas with low unemployment showing the strongest responses to the financial incentives.

Eldre uføre er tyngst å få tilbake i arbeid. De unge er lettest å få tilbake i arbeid. Det er ikke banebrytende forsking, men er dokumentert i denne artikkelen i det minste.

Kan være spennende å sammenlikne ulike programmer, på både metode og utfall.

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