Selv om den amerikanske økonomien produserte 96 000 nye jobber i august, og selv om arbeidsledigheten gikk ned til 8,1%, selv om økningen var størst i matvare- og restaurantbransjen – er det en skuffende sysselsettingsrapport Bureau of Labor Statistics leverte tidligere i dag.
Selv om Grafen øverst er den CNBC slenger opp, er det denne som er mest interessant:
Arbeidsledigheten er en brøk; antall arbeidsledige over brøkstreken og antall i arbeidsstyrken under brøkstreken. Teller og nevner. Grafen over er antallet som har stukket fra arbeidsstyrken, og slik er et fall i arbeidsledigheten dårlige nyheter:
This was another weak month, especially with the downward revisions to the June and July reports.
This was below expectations of 125,000 payroll jobs added.
Some numbers: There were 96,000 payroll jobs added in August, with 103,000 private sector jobs added, and 7,000 government jobs lost. The unemployment rate decreased to 8.1% (from the household survey), and the participation rate declined to 63.5%. The decline in the unemployment rate was mostly due to the lower participation rate.
U-6, an alternate measure of labor underutilization that includes part time workers and marginally attached workers, declined to 14.7%.
The change in payroll employment for July was revised down from +163,000 to +141,000, and June was revised down from +64,000 to +45,000, for a total revision of minus 41,000 over those two months.
The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours, and average hourly earnings declined slightly. «The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in August. … In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 1 cent to $23.52. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings rose by 1.7 percent.» This is sluggish earnings growth.
Det er ingen hjelp i finanspolitikken, siden 2011 har ‘state and government’ sysselsetting falt med 291 000 arbeidsplasser.
The Economist, Free Exchange:
Most important would be if the Fed links its policy to improvement in unemployment. Following its meeting on Thursday, the ECB previewed what it plans to do: buy the bonds of troubled sovereigns without limit provided they are abiding by the terms of fiscal retrenchment plans worked out with the rest of Europe.
Å linke pengepolitikken til arbeidsledigheten er noe Bernanke ikke har gjort siden starten av finanskrisen. Ingenting tilsier at det kommer til å endre seg.