Er Norge immun mot ‘Hollandsk syke’? White paper skrevet i 2005.

Skjermbilde 2012 09 04 kl 23 19 50Etter at NHO virkelig helte bensin på ‘norske syken’ bålet, har jeg trålt etter forskning på dette. Denne artikkelen er skrevet av Erling Holmøy og Kim Massey Heide i 2005 – noen år etter at handlingsregelen tok til.

Fra abstraktet:

Norway’s petroleum wealth has become considerably more liquid and thereby visible to the public since the mid 1990s. In the policy debate transformation of wealth is often confused with ordinary income. Such a misconception may have contributed to de-industrialisation through real appreciation beyond what is sustainable in a long run perspective. Since re-industrialisation is typically considered difficult, it is important to estimate a norm for sustainable wage growth. In Norway the textbook model of the Small Open Economy (SOE) has often been used for this purpose. We argue that this model neglects important aspects of the Norwegian economy.

På en måte er dette en kritikk av nåværende modellering av den norske økonomien, men diskusjonen er god – fordi (fra konklusjonen):

The rapid de-industrialisation of the Norwegian economy over the recent years has led many observers to question the long run sustainability of the current development. Is the loss of international competitiveness a symptom of Dutch Disease? Or is the loss of jobs in manufacturing industries an integral part of a sustainable growth path in which the observed reallocations are efficient responses to income growth, changes in relative prices, new comparative advantages, as well as a result of exploitation of open capital markets?

  • Contingent on a 1.5 percent annual growth in international prices measured in NOK, 1.3
    percent growth in TFP in private industries, and the same assessments of the petroleum revenues as in the Government’s Long Term Programme 2002-2005, we find that there is room for a constant 4.2 percent annual growth in nominal labour costs.

Altså, gitt lav inflasjon målt og vekst i TFP (Total Faktor Produksjon) er 4,2% vekst i nominell lønn passende. Det var omtrent hva lønnsoppgjøret 2012 landet på.

  • The real appreciation and reduction of the manufacturing sector experienced in the period 1998 – 2003 deviates substantially from the development in the sustainable scenario. The observed growth in the producer real wage cost has exceeded the sustainable growth rate by 1.5 – 2.0 percentage points. According to our simulations, manufacturing employment will be about halved within 20 years if the observed growth in the producer real wage rate were continued.

Halvert på 20 år, fordi reallønnen er for høy. 20 år.

An overall conclusion is that the petroleum wealth is far from large enough to make the Norwegian economy immune to Dutch Disease. There is a danger that the favourable current financial situation for the government and for the economy as a whole may confuse the public with respect to long run consumption possibilities.

Artikkelen slutter med 8 faktaopplysninger om norsk industrisektor.

Og dette var skrevet i 2005, husk det.

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