Her er noen av «høydepunktene» fra IMFs årlige rapport:
Recovery has stalled. Post-crisis repair and rebalancing of the UK economy is likely to be more prolonged than initially envisaged. Confidence is weak and uncertainty is high. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to grow modestly, but with current policy settings the pace will be insufficient to absorb significant slack in the economy, raising the risk of a permanent loss of productive capacity.
Demand support is needed. More expansionary demand policies would close the output gap faster and reduce the risk of hysteresis. In particular:
- Additional monetary stimulus via quantitative easing and possibly cutting the
policy rate is required.
- Credit easing measures announced in June to lower borrowing costs through
provision of bank funding, as recommended in staff’s May 2012 concluding
statement, are welcome and may need to be expanded.
- Budget neutral reallocations should be undertaken to make room to increase
government spending on items with higher multipliers (e.g., public investment).
Further steps are needed to fortify financial sector stability. Such stability is critical to anchor a strong and durable recovery in the UK and is also of global systemic importance as highlighted in spillover analysis. To this end, policies should aim to:
- Strengthen bank balance sheets by building capital rather than reducing assets.
- Address “too big to fail” issues, including by legislating reforms proposed by the Vickers Commission, resisting pressure to reduce their effectiveness.
- Intensify supervision and broaden its authority over financial holding companies.
- Broaden the macroprudential toolkit to help restrain future property bubbles.
Så selv om arbeidsmarkedet ser ut til å være svært så sta, er det problemer i økonomien som ikke arbeidsmarkedet kan være kilden til.
IMF har 75 punkter, bl.a.:
… staff assumes an average multiplier during the consolidation of about 0.5 after incorporating the boost to demand from automatic stabilizers and the monetary policy reaction. This estimate is roughly in line with the OBR’s estimates and implies that consolidation has so far reduced GDP by a cumulative 21⁄2 percent.
As a first step, further monetary stimulus is required. Monetary stimulus can be provided via further QE and cutting the policy rate. Evidence suggests that QE can continue to support demand by lowering long-term interest rates and improving banks’ liquidity. The MPC should reassess the efficacy of cutting the policy rate, taking into account the recent sharp flattening of the yield curve, as well as possible effects on money markets and financial stability.
Scaling back fiscal tightening plans should be the main policy lever if growth does not build momentum by early-2013 even after further monetary stimulus and strong credit easing measures. To preserve credibility, any adjustment to the path of consolidation should be in the context of a multi-year plan and ideally accompanied by deeper entitlement reform, such as legislating accelerated increases in the pension age. Temporary easing measures in such a scenario should focus on infrastructure spending and targeted tax cuts, as they may be more credibly temporary.
Det er mye mer, men tenk på dette: IMF sier altså at innstramningene i budsjettene har kuttet britisk BNP med 2,5 prosentpoeng. Midt i en resesjon.