Fotballonomi: Det beste for eurosonen er at Frankrike vinner Euro2012 #menTysklandvinner

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Det er banken ABN-AMRO, som enten vil ha en pause fra eurokaoset, eller ikke har noe bedre å gjøre, som har tatt for seg økonomiske konsekvenser av Euro2012
Det er best for alle at Frankrike vinner. Hvorfor?

From an economic perspective, the best outcome would be a French victory: From a confidence perspective, one of the eurozone countries would ideally win Euro 2012. A victory for one of the euro opt-outs (Denmark, England or Sweden) would not be welcome, because it would only encourage the eurosceptics. That leaves the question of whether it would be better for one of the “core” countries (Germany, France, Netherlands) to win or one of the peripheral countries. The contagion has already spread to the periphery, and a range of measures have been introduced to support these countries. We feel it is essential that the contagion does not spread to the core countries. Of the participating core countries, France is closest to the firing line. On the assumption that a victory would provide a confidence boost, it would be best if France won Euro 2012.

Banken tippet rett for to år siden, Spania vant verdensmesterskapet.

Så hvilket land vinner i år, ifølge banken?

The table below shows the relevant figures and the outcome is clear enough. Germany and Spain have the best credentials, followed at some distance by the Netherlands. And bearing in mind the form trend (the Spanish team is older and seems to be nearing a saturation point; the German team is younger, this generation has not yet won a tournament and die Mannschaft is playing relatively close to home), we pick Germany to win Euro 2012.

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