En ny artikkel fra University of California, Berkeley forsøker å finne ut om oppkjøp lønner seg.
In the sample of close bidding contests, we use the loser’s post-merger performance to construct the counterfactual performance of the winner had he not won the contest. We find that bidder returns are closely aligned in the years before the contest, but diverge afterwards: Winners underperform losers by 50 percent over the following three years. Existing methodologies, including announcement effects, fail to capture the acquirors’ underperformance.
CNN Money har spurt professorene Ulrike Malmendier, Enrico Moretti og Florian Peters om funnene. Mye koker ned til ‘gresset er grønnere’.
«Executives always think this time will be different,» says co-author Malmendier. «Yes, others have failed in the past, but I can do better.» The real problem it seems is overconfidence. Unfortunately, that’s a quality that is in high supply among CEOs.