Portugal følger IMF-oppskriften til punkt og prikke. Og gjelden stiger.

Portugal crisis banderuli
I mai fikk Portugal $103 milliarder dollar av IMF, siden lånekostnadene i finansmarkedet ble for høye. Samtidig har gjeld/BNP gått fra 107% til 118%. Altså 11% av BNP på kort tid. Husk at for dette til å gi mening må enten telleren øke eller nevneren må synke (eller begge deler). Mine penger er på en kombinasjon, men mest på at BNP har sunket.

Her er fra NY Times:

On Saturday, more than 100,000 people assembled peacefully in Lisbon’s sprawling Palace Square to rally against the austerity measures and the nation’s 13 percent unemployment, while chanting “I.M.F. doesn’t call the shots here!” The head of Portugal’s largest labor union vowed to hold additional protest rallies around the country.

….

The I.M.F., for its part, predicts that Portugal will eventually grow enough to cut its debt to a manageable level. But even the I.M.F. warns in its recent economic review that if growth were to disappoint, Portugal’s debt “would not be sustainable.”

….

The finance minister, Mr. Gaspar, an economist who is a former research director at the European Central Bank and a disciple of the bank’s austerity-focused philosophy, insists that his country’s debt is manageable. And he has no plans to ease up. This year he intends to slash government pension payments by 1.2 billion euros (close to $1.6 billion) and cut the bonus payouts that public sector workers in this country have long earned.

Her er det skumle. Portugal må opp i 10% av BNP i overskudd over statsbudsjettet, bare for å gjøre gjelden ‘bærekraftig’.

Og her er kjernen. Hvordan skaffer man seg overskudd?

Enten kutter man i utgifter, eller øker utgifter. Helst begge deler, men det ville vært økonomisk magi i en resesjon.

“Portugal’s debt is just not sustainable,” said David Bencek, an analyst at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research organization in Germany. “The real economy does not have the structure to grow in the future and thus will not be able to pay back its debt in the long run.”

Vekst. Enhjørningen i økonomien. Ingen har sett en, og hvis du tror du har sett en, ikke blunk. Stå stille.

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