Den siste til Christina Romer i NY Times tar for seg som utgangspunkt den store grønne til Rogoff og Reinhart.
Og hun har noen viktige poeng, som inkluderer det norske:
The Reinhart-Rogoff study emphasizes common patterns across crises. It eschews complicated statistical techniques, relying instead on simple graphs and averages. And the averages are stunning. For 14 major crises since 1929, the associated decline in real per capita gross domestic product averaged 9.3 percent. For postwar crises, it took an average of 4.4 years for output to return to its pre-crisis level.
But study their charts more closely and you’ll find that those averages mask remarkable variation. Norway had only a slight decline in per capita G.D.P. — around 1 percent — after its 1987 crisis, and output was back to its previous level in just three years. By contrast, real per capita G.D.P. in Argentina fell more than 20 percent in conjunction with its 2001 crisis, and took eight years to recover.
The Depression illustrates the variability vividly. Real per capita G.D.P. fell nearly 30 percent in the United States, and didn’t return to its pre-crisis level for a decade. But in Spain, it fell only 9 percent in the Depression as a whole, and actually rose in the year after its 1931 banking crisis.
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