Sta nominell lønn i India. Nytt working paper om lønn, inflasjon og tørke.

Eksperimentet starter ganske kjent. Vi er i India og sitter på et datasett som beskriver lønn, sysselsetting og nedbørssjokk fra 1956 – 2008. Allerede her er jeg imponert.

Forfatteren, Supreet Kaur, er på jakt etter bevis for nedadgående nominell lønnsrigiditet i markedet for landbruksarbeidere:

  • First, nominal wages rise in response to positive labor demand shocks but do not fall during droughts.
  • Second, after transitory positive shocks have dissipated, nominal wages do not return to their previous levels—they remain high in future years.
  • Third, inflation moderates these effects: when inflation is higher, real wages are more likely to be lower during droughts and after transitory positive shocks.
  • Fourth, wage distortions generate employment distortions: employment is lower in the year after a transitory positive shock than if the positive shock had not occurred. Those with less land—who must sell their labor to other farms—are considerably more likely to face rationing. Landless laborers experience a 7% reduction in employment—twice as large as the employment decrease during a drought.
  • Fifth, there is some evidence that wages are less rigid in areas where rigidity is likely to cause larger profit losses due to crop characteristics.
  • Finally, data from a new survey I conducted in two Indian states suggests that agricultural workers and employers view nominal wage cuts as unfair; are considerably less likely to regard real wage cuts as unfair if they are achieved through inflation rather than nominal cuts; and believe that nominal wage cuts cause effort reductions.

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