Arbeidsmarkedspessimisme (24 bokstaver. Slå den)

Bare så du vet konsensus:

Many forecasters think the unemployment rate will increase next year because of sluggish growth. Right now the FOMC is forecasting the unemployment rate will be in the 8.5% to 8.7% range in Q4 2012, and private forecasters are even more pessimistic. Goldman Sachs is forecasting 9% in Q4 2012, and Merrill Lynch is forecasting 8.8%.

Det er fra Calculated Risk, som minner oss på at det er mange faktorer som spiller inn, ikke minst arbeidsstyrkedeltakelse:

If the participation rate falls to 63.5%, the economy needs to add 74 thousand jobs per month for the unemployment rate to fall to 8%. But a further decline in the participation rate would not be good news. I expect the participation rate to increase if the economy improves at all.

Most likely I think the participation rate will be in the 64.0% to 64.5% range next November. That would mean the economy would need to add somewhere between 167,000 and 260,000 jobs per month. The bottom end of that range seems possible with sluggish growth, but the top end is less likely.

Når ledigheten falt fra 8,9% til 8,6% i USA ved forrige Bureau of Labour Statistics publikasjon, var alle litt forvirret. Så, etter noen minutter, fant man djevelen i detaljene.

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