Monthly Archives: desember 2011

JegBetalteEnBestikkelse.com

Ipaidabribe or ke screen capture 2011 12 21 10 47 17
Det du kikker på er en nettside i Kenya. Her kan du føre en logg av alle bestikkelser du må betale i landet, for så å dele informasjonen med andre.

Kenya havner på en delt 154. plass over verdens minst korrupte nasjoner. Med en poengsum på 2,2 er det hvertfall bedre i Kenya enn i Somalia (sist med 1. poeng).

(Hodenikk til utviklingsbloggen til Evan Lieberman)

Olivier Blanchard og fire punkter om hvorfor alt tok en u-sving i Q2 og Q3

Olivier Blanchard oppsummerer konsist:

  • First, post the 2008-09 crisis, the world economy is pregnant with multiple equilibria—self-fulfilling outcomes of pessimism or optimism, with major macroeconomic implications. Multiple equilibria are not new…. What has become clearer this year is that liquidity problems, and associated runs, can also affect governments. Like banks, government liabilities are much more liquid than their assets—largely future tax receipts….
  • Second, incomplete or partial policy measures can make things worse….
  • Third, financial investors are schizophrenic about fiscal consolidation and growth. They react positively to news of fiscal consolidation, but then react negatively later, when consolidation leads to lower growth—which it often does. Some preliminary estimates that the IMF is working on suggest that it does not take large multipliers for the joint effects of fiscal consolidation and the implied lower growth to lead in the end to an increase, not a decrease, in risk spreads on government bonds…. I should be clear here. Substantial fiscal consolidation is needed, and debt levels must decrease. But it should be, in the words of Angela Merkel, a marathon rather than a sprint. It will take more than two decades to return to prudent levels of debt. There is a proverb that actually applies here too: “slow and steady wins the race.”
  • Fourth, perception molds reality…. [N]ot much happened to change the economic situation in the Euro zone in the second half of the year. But once markets and commentators started to mention the possible breakup of Euro, the perception remained and it also will not easily go away. Many financial investors are busy constructing strategies in case it happens….

Uthevet i nummer 3 er en verden hvor ‘kontraktiv finanspolitikk er kontraktiv’, ifølge Blanchard.

James Hamilton og eurokrisens tre faser, som sett fra The Fed. Hva blir den fjerde?

Over hos EconBrowser kikker professor Hamilton på hvordan finanskrisen har utartet seg for The Federal Reserve.

Jeg gir deg den første fasen, med medfølgende graf:

I would characterize the period from February 2008 through March of 2009 as the first phase of recent U.S. monetary policy. During this period, the Fed was concerned about the possibility of a full-fledged financial panic, in which no one is sure which financial institutions are going to fail next and as a result nobody is willing to lend to anyone for any purpose. The Fed sought to fulfill its traditional mission of being the lender of last resort, which it implemented through a series of new initiatives summarized in Figure 1 below. The most important of these were currency swaps, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, and the Term Auction Facility. The Fed also acquired some problematic assets through the Bear Stearns and AIG bailouts, which it has been gradually selling and writing off.

Fed lending dec 11

Her er bildeteksten, så du kan forstå hvor pengen gikk hen:

Figure 1. Details of Fed emergency lending, in billions of dollars, seasonally unadjusted, from Jan 1, 2007 to Dec 14, 2011. swaps: central bank liquidity swaps; AIG: sum of credit extended to American International Group, Inc. plus net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II and III plus preferred interest in AIA Aurora LLC and ALICO Holdings LLC; Maiden 1: net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC; MMIFL: net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility; TALF: loans extended through Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility plus net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC; ABCP: loans extended to Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility; PDCF: loans extended to primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit; discount: sum of primary credit, secondary credit, and seasonal credit; CPFF: net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; TAC: term auction credit; RP: repurchase agreements;

Fase 2 er 09-10 og QE1. Les hele artikkelen her.

Washington Post tar en ide fra BBC (Graf o-hoi)

I forrige uke hadde BBC hentet inn noen grafer fra økonomer som skulle best ‘beskrive den store resesjonen’.

Nå har Washington Post gjort det samme. Her er to av mine favoritter:

Ulikhets-dragen til Jared Bernstein:
Screen shot 2011 12 22 at 00 09 37

Den store stagnasjonen, av Tyler Cowen:

Screen shot 2011 12 22 at 00 10 40

Alle 18 grafene finner du her, mange godbiter.

Olivier Blanchard og fire punkter om hvorfor alt tok en u-sving i Q2 og Q3

Olivier Blanchard oppsummerer konsist:

  • First, post the 2008-09 crisis, the world economy is pregnant with multiple equilibria—self-fulfilling outcomes of pessimism or optimism, with major macroeconomic implications. Multiple equilibria are not new…. What has become clearer this year is that liquidity problems, and associated runs, can also affect governments. Like banks, government liabilities are much more liquid than their assets—largely future tax receipts….
  • Second, incomplete or partial policy measures can make things worse….
  • Third, financial investors are schizophrenic about fiscal consolidation and growth. They react positively to news of fiscal consolidation, but then react negatively later, when consolidation leads to lower growth—which it often does. Some preliminary estimates that the IMF is working on suggest that it does not take large multipliers for the joint effects of fiscal consolidation and the implied lower growth to lead in the end to an increase, not a decrease, in risk spreads on government bonds…. I should be clear here. Substantial fiscal consolidation is needed, and debt levels must decrease. But it should be, in the words of Angela Merkel, a marathon rather than a sprint. It will take more than two decades to return to prudent levels of debt. There is a proverb that actually applies here too: “slow and steady wins the race.”
  • Fourth, perception molds reality…. [N]ot much happened to change the economic situation in the Euro zone in the second half of the year. But once markets and commentators started to mention the possible breakup of Euro, the perception remained and it also will not easily go away. Many financial investors are busy constructing strategies in case it happens….
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Christina Romer siterer pensum.

Den siste til Christina Romer i NY Times tar for seg som utgangspunkt den store grønne til Rogoff og Reinhart.

Og hun har noen viktige poeng, som inkluderer det norske:

The Reinhart-Rogoff study emphasizes common patterns across crises. It eschews complicated statistical techniques, relying instead on simple graphs and averages. And the averages are stunning. For 14 major crises since 1929, the associated decline in real per capita gross domestic product averaged 9.3 percent. For postwar crises, it took an average of 4.4 years for output to return to its pre-crisis level.

But study their charts more closely and you’ll find that those averages mask remarkable variation. Norway had only a slight decline in per capita G.D.P. — around 1 percent — after its 1987 crisis, and output was back to its previous level in just three years. By contrast, real per capita G.D.P. in Argentina fell more than 20 percent in conjunction with its 2001 crisis, and took eight years to recover.

The Depression illustrates the variability vividly. Real per capita G.D.P. fell nearly 30 percent in the United States, and didn’t return to its pre-crisis level for a decade. But in Spain, it fell only 9 percent in the Depression as a whole, and actually rose in the year after its 1931 banking crisis.

Les hele innlegget og hennes konklusjoner her

3,2 millioner prikker (oh the patience!)

Hero from Miguel Endara on Vimeo.

(Jeg så ikke valg av motiv komme.)

Noen setninger om Ungarn som ikke er oppmuntrende

With this supermajority, Fidesz won the power to change the constitution. They have used this power in the most extreme way at every turn, amending the constitution ten times in their first year in office and then enacting a wholly new constitution that will take effect on January 1, 2012.

This constitutional activity has transformed the legal landscape to remove checks on the power of the government and put virtually all power into the hands of the current governing party for the foreseeable future.

The new constitution has attracted a great deal of criticism from the Venice Commission for Democracy through Law of the Council of Europe, the European Parliament and the United States. But the Fidesz government has paid no attention.

En meget bra post om Ungarn fra Kim Lane Scheppele ved Princeton.

Hun fortsetter:

The government lowered the retirement age for judges from 70 to 62, giving judges only a few months to adjust to their new futures.

National Judicial Office with a single person at the helm who has the power to replace the retiring judges and to name future judges. This person also has the power to move any sitting judge to a different court.

But the new districts are drawn in such a way that no other party on the political horizon besides Fidesz is likely to win elections.

From here on, all tax and fiscal policy must be decided by a two-thirds supermajority. Even the precise boundaries of electoral districts cannot be changed by simple majority vote, but only by a two-third supermajority. If a new government gets a mere majority, policies instituted during the Fidesz government cannot be changed.

Les hele her.

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Daniel Gros – Kan Italia overleve stormen?

Akkurat nå er eurokrisen litt i limbo. En endelig løsning på ordlyden og ratifiseringen av en finanspolitisk avtale for EU-26 (alle minus UK) kommer ikke før mars.

EU forsøker å pumpe opp krigskisten til IMF, og det vil ta tid. I tillegg har ikke rentene beveget seg stort i det siste. Det kan kjapt endre seg, men inntil videre – limbo.

Her er Daniel Gros:

But the process of reducing wage costs must now start to convince financial markets that Italy will be able to grow again on the back of growing exports, as it did in the 1990s.
Provided the real sector of the economy can be shielded from the worst effects of the financial storm the country should have enough time for the real adjustment to bear its first fruits.

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Dagens graf (litt mindre morsom enn den forrige) #3235: Nord vs. Sør Korea

North Korea vs South Korea FIXED
Uansett hvordan du snur og vender på dette, forblir det like tragisk.

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