In a spectacularly well-timed paper, Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans Joachim Voth argue yes.
Expenditure cuts carry a significant risk of increasing the frequency of riots, anti-government demonstrations, general strikes, political assassinations, and attempts at revolutionary overthrow of the established order. While these are low- probability events in normal years, they become much more common as austerity measures are implemented. … We demonstrate that the general pattern of association between unrest and budget cuts holds in Europe for the period 1919-2009. It can be found in almost all sub-periods, and for all types of unrest. Strikingly, where we can trace the cause of each incident (during the period 1980-95), we can show that only austerity-inspired demonstrations respond to budget cuts in the time- series. Also, when we use recently-developed data that allows clean identification of policy-driven changes in the budget balance, our results hold.
Via Kevin O’Rourke.
(Via The Monkey Cage.)
Datasettet er imponerende, 1919-2009. Dette betyr at det vi ser i Spania, Hellas, Storbritannia er bare en observasjon i settet. Meget interessant, konklusjonen er nok ikke overraskende, men selve arbeidet er verdt å lese.