Hellas nedgradert, igjen.

Standard & Poor’s har akkurat nedgradert Hellas fra B til CCC. La oss først definere hva ‘B’ og ‘CCC’ betyr:

  • ‘AAA’ — Extremely strong capacity to meet financial commitments. Highest Rating.
  • ‘AA’ — Very strong capacity to meet financial commitments.
  • ‘A’ — Strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to adverse economic conditions and changes in circumstances.
  • ‘BBB’ — Adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions.
  • ‘BBB – Considered lowest investment grade by market participants.
  • ‘BB+ — Considered highest speculative grade by market participants.
  • ‘BB’ — Less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
  • ‘B’ — More vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments.
  • ‘CCC’ — Currently vulnerable and dependent on favorable business, financial and economic conditions to meet financial commitments.
  • ‘CC’ — Currently highly vulnerable.
  • ‘C’ — Currently highly vulnerable obligations and other defined circumstances.
  • ‘D’ — Payment default on financial commitments.

Nedgraderingen er i all hovedsak endring fra ‘currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments’, til ‘currently vulnerable … to meet financial commitments’.
Dette fra Wall Street Journal:

The downgrade reflects our view that there is a significantly higher likelihood of one or more defaults, as defined by our criteria relating to full and timely payment, linked to efforts by official creditors to close an emerging financing gap in Greece. This financing gap has emerged in part because Greece’s access to market financing in 2012 and possibly beyond, as envisaged in the current official EU/IMF program, is unlikely to materialize.

This lack of access, in our view, creates a gap between committed official financing and Greece’s projected financing requirements. Greece has heavy near-term financing requirements, with approximately EUR95 billion of Greek government debt maturing between now and the end of 2013 along with an additional EUR58 billion maturing in 2014.

Moreover, the downgrade reflects our view that implementation risks associated with the EU/IMF program are rising, given the increasingly complicated political environment in Greece coupled with its current difficult economic climate.

S&P’s argumenterer for at Hellas kommer til å få svi når krisepakken til EU og IMF er oppbrukt:

This financing gap has emerged in part because Greece’s access to market financing in 2012 and possibly beyond, as envisaged in the current official EU/IMF program, is unlikely to materialize.

Husk at S&P’s nedgradering er ‘bare en mening’ fra ratingbyrået, men det er lettere å forstå hvorfor nedgraderingen på offentlig gjeld skjer og ikke CDS/CDO papir.

Uansett er det dårlig nytt for Hellas:
Chart
Grafen viser hvor høy rente markedet setter på 10-års obligasjonene til den greske stat. Ville du betalt 17% rente på huslånet ditt?

Merket med ,

Legg igjen en kommentar

Fyll inn i feltene under, eller klikk på et ikon for å logge inn:

WordPress.com-logo

Du kommenterer med bruk av din WordPress.com konto. Logg ut / Endre )

Twitter picture

Du kommenterer med bruk av din Twitter konto. Logg ut / Endre )

Facebookbilde

Du kommenterer med bruk av din Facebook konto. Logg ut / Endre )

Google+ photo

Du kommenterer med bruk av din Google+ konto. Logg ut / Endre )

Kobler til %s

%d bloggers like this: