Leste ett sted at på et tidspunkt var det 4000 twittermeldinger i sekundet om Osama Bin Ladens død.
Economists React: ‘John Wayne’ Back in the Saddle – Real Time Economics – WSJ: «Economists and others weigh in on the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. forces.
–John Wayne finally caught up with Osama bin Laden, and killed him. The immediate reaction in the financial markets confirms my view that the dollar’s weakness and gold’s strength have been related to the perception that America is in decline. If that changes now, then the dollar might continue to strengthen and gold might at least stop going straight up for a while. All we need to do is to dispose of other despots and terrorists in the Middle East, such as the ones in Libya and Syria. We should also cut the federal deficit, which is projected to total $10 trillion over the next 10 years, by $6 trillion over this period. My sense is that most fully invested bears would turn into outright bulls if fiscal discipline were to make a comeback in the U.S. and if John Wayne were back in the saddle again. –Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research
–Good, and good riddance. But it’s hard to see how it changes anything important. –Paul Krugman, Princeton University and 2008 Economics Nobel laureate
–The markets are likely to treat this mix — of a durable reduction in security threats and some possibility of isolated disturbances — as involving a net overall reduction in risk premia. This would bolster equity prices worldwide while placing some pressure on those government bond markets that traditionally benefit from flight to quality. Oil markets face a more uncertain outlook as, here, the impact of reduced risk aversion interacts most directly with the possibility of some increase in supply concerns. Importantly, the significance of President Obama’s announcement could go well beyond this by serving as a catalyst for a renewed sense of unity and purpose in the U.S. .– Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco
–[The bin Laden news] lowers risk premium — good for U.S. growth/ lower oil prices and thereby lower inflation risk as well. Good for Moslem countries trying to remain democratic — Turkey, Indonesia for example. Good for global growth as well. –John Silvia, Wells Fargo
–Last night’s news regarding the capture and killing of Osama Bin Laden sure has a lot of Americans feeling better this morning. It also hits especially close to home for a lot of Wall Street traders and New Yorkers. Not surprisingly, stock futures are trading a bit higher this morning. But will it last? While it is hard to find a parallel to yesterday’s news, back in 2003 the capture of Saddam Hussein is somewhat similar. On 12/14/03 (also a Sunday), it was announced that US forces had captured the former Iraqi ruler who had up until then evaded US forces. When the opening bell rang the following Monday, the S&P 500 was up half of one percent, which ended up being right near the highs of the day. By the end of the day, the S&P 500 finished right near where it had closed the previous Friday. –Bespoke Investment Group
–My quick take is that that Obama will be re-elected (getting Osama is way more important than Iraq or Saddam in the American mind, attacks on American soil, etc.), at this point the Republicans won’t try to beat him from the center and will thus nominate a more extreme candidate and lose badly, and the most important effects will be on Pakistan, not this country. –Tyler Cowen, George Mason University
–Bin Laden’s death is highly significant within the context of domestic US politics. The operation will boost Obama’s drooping popularity and give him a springboard from which to launch his 2012 re-election campaign. During his 2008 campaign, Obama criticised his predecessor George W Bush for devoting insufficient resources to the bin Laden manhunt, and the Al-Qaeda leader’s death is an endorsement of Obama’s approach to external security. Moreover, it allows Obama to portray his wider military ‘surge’ in Afghanistan as a success. If Obama is re-elected next year, then the events of 1 May will be viewed as crucial in that victory. –James Brazier, IHS Global Insight
–The man is dead. That is good news for the day. It is an emotional trade for stocks. but we need to see whether the rally in stocks can be sustainable. The organization and the network are still out there. the fight against terrorism is not over. The news could have a bigger impact years ago when it was more fresh. Now almost 10 years have passed so bin Laden was in the backburner. The small losses in the Treasury market tells you that the market focuses on the economic data and other developments in the world such as Japan. –James Newman, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.
–The death of Osama Bin Laden, in our view, will have durable positive effects on equity markets, persuading investors to diminish fears on global security (a strong case to be made that the war on terror is over), leading to lower equity risk premiums (read P/E of stocks go up). Why? #1: Equity Inflows Should Increase….Those investors have one less excuse to see ‘risks’ in equity, thus, inflows into equity should improve… #2: A second important reason we see equity valuations increase (via lower risk premia) is that terrorism is a tail event, and the framework of asset allocators/macro funds/individual investors was to build ‘fat tails’—that is, build greater likelihood of terrorism in their models… #3. Consumer Confidence Goes Up.’
–What might this mean going forward to markets, economy, and prices? The euphoric reaction of markets is likely to be short lived. This does not impact earnings or unemployment or economic expansion immediately. It may even cause a backlash of terror attacks short term. However, the best case scenario is quite positive, and could have broad implications for the economy: The Arab street, especially the youth, have become more enamored with Democracy than a political belief system that promises suicide bombings; We were moving towards a Post- Al-Quada era previously; this now cements it; Anything that contributes to increased long term stability in the Middle East should work to reduce high oil prices; Ultimately, this should be a global macro positive; the benefits of this will take time to accrue, but should be felt for years.–Barry Ritholtz, Fusion IQ
(Via Wall Street Journal.)