Monthly Archives: mai 2011

Forfallet til DSK som fortalt av The Economist

Hvis du ikke har et abonnement med The Economist så lar de deg lese hele denne artikkelen på nett. Herlig start:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn: The downfall of DSK | The Economist: «The downfall of DSK»

MARCHED off a plane; arrested; charged with seven offences, including attempted rape; taken before a New York court; sent to Rikers Island jail. The transformation within two days of Dominique Strauss-Kahn from would-be president of France and managing director of the International Monetary Fund into prisoner 1225782, a suspect awaiting trial, prompted gasps of disbelief and consternation the world over, particularly in his native land (where Mr Strauss-Kahn is often known simply by his initials).

Nå er ikke den jevne nordmanns (og ikke min egen forøvrig) kunnskap om fransk politikk langt over gjennomsnittet, men alle kan tolke denne grafen og dens viktighet:
20110521 fbc760(Kilde: The Economist)

Les hele.

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Bukk, møt havresekk.

Hvor mye tjener din stortingsrepresentant? I Kenya tjener de 960 000 kroner:

Kenyan MPs raise their salaries, again « Opalo’s weblog: «Being a member of parliament in Kenya is one of the most lucrative jobs on the Continent. The men and women of the August house unanimously voted to raise their salaries to US $174, 400 a year – which puts them at par with what US congressmen make. Most of this money will not be taxed. Understandably, lots of Kenyans have cried thieves! Although having the biggest economy in the wider region, per capita GDP in Kenya stands at a dismal US $ 1,600. 50% of Kenyans live below the poverty line. 78% of them live in rural areas; the vast majority of whom survive on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. On average, a child born in Kenya can hope to live to be 58.2.

The only good that can come out of this is that it will incentivize MPs to take their constituents more seriously – losing one’s seat has suddenly become more costly – thereby granting parliament better institutional standing by lowering the MP turnover rates (The idea here is that once they feel secure enough in their seats they may start to take their legislative duties more seriously — I know, wishful thinking). The pay hike may also empower parliamentarians and make them less dependent on party bosses and their patronage networks.

That said, it is still grotesquely obscene that Kenyan MPs make 109 times what their masters – the Kenyan electorate – make on average in any given year. And don’t even get me started on whether these clowns honorable members are worth the 1.1 million shillings they hope to make every month.»

(Via Opalo’s Weblog.)

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Hvem visste at det var bare 2-3 ganger i halvåret studenter skrev for hånd?

Dagens artigste:

Studenter orker ikke skrive for hånd – Hordaland – NRK Nyheter:
Det skaper stor frustrasjon blant ferske studenter. En mannlig student forteller til NRK.no at han leverte inn oppgaven uten å fullføre, fordi han fikk skrivekrampe.

– Det hadde vært en fordel å bruke pc, for man skriver lite for hånd for tiden. På forrige eksamen avsluttet jeg tre sider for tidlig fordi jeg fikk skrivekrampe.

– Og du trenger kanskje et oppfriskningskurs i løkkeskrift?

– Det er vel strengt tatt sånn at når de velger at jeg skal skrive for hånd – må de ta til takke med den skriften de får.

– Kråketær?

– Ja, stort sett.

[…]

– Universitetet blir en udigitalisert boble, mener leder for Studentparlamentet ved Universitetet i Bergen, Tine Øverseth Blomfeldt.

Studentlederen kjenner selv også godt til den muskelkrampen man får etter å ha sittet seks timer og skrevet for hånd. Det største problemet er likevel overgangen fra pc til løkkeskrift med penn på papir.

– Ja, det er noe med at det er to forskjellige måter å skrive på. Hvis du skriver på pc kan du gå tilbake å redigere det du skriver. Det blir et stort problem for studentene når de på universitetet skal disponere oppgaven på papir, når man har lært noe annet på videregående, sier hun til NRK.no.

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Hvordan statlig konkurs, fattigdom og vekst ser ut: Argentina utgave

Argentina
(Kilder: IMF, WDI)
Argentina gikk konkurs i 2001 og slikt skal man virkelig prøve å unngå. Still deg i 1990 og tegn en imaginær trendlinje for BNP. I årene mellom 1997 og 2008 kan du virkelig fargelegge ut rommet under kurven.

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Dagens bilde #78: Landingsmønster i San Francisco

Har ikke tid til all verdens med blogging for tiden, denne trengs derfor ikke leses. Bare sees:
Airport3 1306349910 Bildene er tatt av Terence Chang (Flickr alias exxonvaldez) og det er 13 av de.

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På to-do lista: Renter

Note to self: Samle sammen rentebaner fra viktigste handelspartnere og store økonomier.

Tror kanskje folk vi se de side om side.

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Too big to fail. Nå snakker vi HBO.

Endelig noe for økonominerdene fra HBO:

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«Det er bare en mening. Ikke ta oss seriøst»

Her er hva et enkelt søk etter ‘Downgrade’ gir på Google News:

Ratings agency Moody’s puts 14 UK banks on review for potential credit rating …

Fitch Downgrades Five Greek Banks

Banks lead FTSE down after Greece downgrade

Greece Downgraded to Junk

Miners hit hard as market is spooked by credit rating downgrade for Italy

Jeg har ingen problemer med å se de underliggende grunnene til at ratingbyråene vurderer endringer i ratings. Kanskje fordi jeg er mer komfortabel med makroøkonomi enn finans, men problemet mitt er at jeg har sett filmen Inside Job:

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I Norge har vi få søkere til byråkratiet, mens USA har mange søkere men ingen blir ansatt.

Jeg likte første del av denne bloggposten av Ezra Klein. Du husker kanskje at her i Norge var ikke søkerlista til sentralbanksjefjobben verdens lengste, og Svein Gjerdrem var den eneste søkeren til landets mektigste byråkratjobb. Men vi får i det minste ansatt noen:

If it can go wrong, it will go wrong. And it’ll be our fault. – Ezra Klein – The Washington Post: «If it can go wrong, it will go wrong. And it’ll be our fault.
By Ezra Klein
Here’s what we should’ve learned from the events of the past decade: Murphy was right. What can go wrong, will go wrong — and we need to plan accordingly. Because terrorist attacks? They happen. Credit bubbles? They burst. Underregulated Wall Street banks? They fail. Poorly designed offshore drilling platforms? They explode. Overleveraged European economies? They can’t pay their debts. Broken-down levees in hurricane country? They breach.

But we haven’t learned our lesson. Forget preparing for the ‘black swans,’ investor Nassim Taleb’s name for the unpredictable crises that disrupt and damage our lives. We’ve stopped preparing for what economist Nouriel Roubini calls the ‘white swans’: the crises we can predict and could even prevent.

It’s been less than three years since the fall of Lehman. The financial crisis remains lodged in our minds, and in our jobless rate. And yet, as ProPublica’s Jesse Eisinger has pointed out, the Federal Reserve lacks a vice chairman for banking supervision. There’s no one officially in charge of the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research. The seat marked ‘insurance’ on Financial Stability Oversight Council is empty. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has a leader but not a director. No one has been confirmed to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. And Republicans are still saying Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond is underqualified to serve on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors.

Meanwhile, the House GOP is fighting to starve financial regulators of the resources they need to do their work. Both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission needed extra money to scale up to their expanded roles under the Dodd-Frank law, but the Republicans’ 2011 budget proposal whacked them with sharp cuts — and then their 2012 proposal repealed most of Dodd-Frank, with no vision for what should go in its place. The irony? All this is being pursued under the guise of deficit reduction. And why do we have such a gaping deficit? The . . . financial crisis.»

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Om diskonteringsrate i finans. Et da/når problem? En Rolls Royce studie.

Sir Richard on Sir Ralph:

IN YESTERDAY’S FT, Richard Lambert, its former editor, heralded the industrial achievements of his fellow Knight Bachelor, Sir Ralph Robins. Under Sir Ralph’s patient guidance, Rolls Royce resisted the tyranny of short-termism to help revive one of Britain’s last bastions of engineering excellence. Sir Ralph often complained about the myopia of the City of London:

What do you want,’ Sir Ralph would ask. ‘A world-leading company in a dozen years’ time, or a bigger pay-out today?

Now that myopia can be measured. Mr Lambert cites ‘The Short Long’, a paper published this month by Andrew Haldane and Richard Davies of the Bank of England. It documents the British and American stockmarkets’ tendency to feel the morrow only dimly, discounting future earnings more heavily than is rational. A pay-out in a dozen years’ time, for example, was undervalued by almost 54% by the markets over the period 1995-2004 (which largely overlaps with Sir Ralph’s tenure as chairman). In the industrials sector, it was undervalued by more than 60%.

If Rolls Royce is an example of a company that resisted myopia, Cadbury is a company that succumbed to it, according to Mr Lambert. Note the preposition he chooses in describing the company’s sale last year to a well-known American food giant:

Shareholders might well have decided to take a small but certain gain from a hostile takeover today rather than wait for the uncertain returns tomorrow from all that new investment. That’s just what happened to Cadbury when it was taken out by Kraft last year.

read more

(Via Free exchange.)

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