Libya ned, Saudi Arabia opp? Vi følger opp…

Mr. Hamilton ved Econbrowser stilte spørsmålet her og følger nå opp i en bloggpost. Her er mitt favorittutdrag:

Econbrowser: Saudi oil production and the Libyan conflict:

One of the key questions in assessing the effect of the Libyan conflict on world oil prices was the extent to which an increase in Saudi production would offset some of the lost output from Libya. Now we know the answer, and it’s not reassuring.

Back on Feb 25, Reuters reported what sounded like some favorable indications:

Top exporter Saudi Arabia has raised oil output above 9 million barrels per day (bpd) to make up for a near halt in Libyan exports, an industry source said, helping prices fall further from the highest since 2008….

The Saudi move follows reassurances from Riyadh earlier in the week that it was prepared to act to prevent shortages as a result of the rebellion in Libya.

Only it later turned out that this production increase was not in response to events in Libya, but in fact had been implemented some months earlier. And this week Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi tried to get us to believe that the Saudis have now gone back to lower production levels because there’s way too much oil being supplied already.

I kid you not. Here’s the quote from Bloomberg:

«Our production in February was 9,125,100 barrels a day,» al-Naimi said, as he arrived in Kuwait for a conference. «In March, it was 8,292,100 barrels. It will probably go a little higher in April. The reason I mention these numbers is to show you the market is oversupplied.»

Vent, ‘the market is oversupplied’? Vil noen vennligst svare oljeminister Ali Al-Naimi?

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