Monthly Archives: mars 2011

Mer Irland. Liveblogging.

Irish Times har en god liveblogg oppe og går. Her er noe ny informasjon jeg ikke har sett hittil:

IT: BlackRock, the consultants hired by the Central Bank to verify the tests, have used mortgage losses in the US state of Nevada, one of the worst-hit in the subprime crisis, to benchmark Irish mortgage losses.
15:19

IT: Goodbody analyst Eamonn Hughes says «it’s hard to see either BOI or IL&P avoiding majority state ownership and AIB is already 93% owned»
15:14

IT: Davy analyst Emer Lang said this morning the Bank of Ireland and EBS figures «would be within our range of estimates», while the Irish Life & Perm figure «looks on the high side»
15:12

IT: Expectations are Bank of Ireland will need €4-5 billion, Irish Life & Perm over €3 billion, EBS about €1 billion and AIB in excess of €4.7 billion

Livebloggen kan du følge her, og offentliggjøringen av stresstesten kommer kl. 17.30 norsk tid.

Noe jeg legger merke til er at en direkte respons fra ECB etter stresstesten er kunngjort, ikke vil komme:

IT: Reuters are reporting the European Central Bank will not unveil medium-term funding support for Irish banks this afternoon, «spoiling Ireland’s grand plan for nailing its banking crisis before it is even unveiled».

Siden dette ikke er tilfellet, er hva som skjer i obligasjonsmarkedet viktig:
Her er yield for irske 2-års obligasjoner og her er 10-års(begge fra Bloomberg). Hva tror du yielden står i ca. kl. 17:40?

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Endring av verdipapirforskriftens regler om opptak av telefonsamtaler? At det var?

FinanstilsynetPressRLS.png
(Screenshot: Finanstilsynet.no)

Denne pressemeldingen dumpet inn i RSS leseren, og jeg må erklære min uvisshet: har vi en regel om telefonsamtaler i verdipapirforskriften? Og mitt neste spørsmål er: hvordan håndheves dette?
§1-3 opphører og skal erstattes med:

§10-31: 1) Verdipapirforetak skal foreta lydopptak av alle telefonsamtaler i tilknytning til ytelse av investeringstjenester som nevnt i verdipapirhandelloven § 2-1 første ledd nr. 1 til 6.

Da vet jeg det.

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Forbrukerrådet vs. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

CFPB
Det slår meg at Forbrukerrådet ble opprettet i 1953 og Forbrukerombudet i 1973, mens Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ble opprettet etter The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 ble vedtatt i, da, 2010.

Noen statsvitere som vil kommentere på konsument/produsent forholdet Norge vs. USA?

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Listen over amerikanske banker som mottok krisepenger offentliggjøres idag etter rettsavgjørelse.

Høyesterett snudde ikke, og dermed forblir en tidligere order gjeldene. Den amerikanske sentralbanken må offentiggjøre 231 sider som dokumenterer hvem som mottok nødlånene i 2008-2009. Sentralbanken anket helt til høyesterett, på bakgrunn av at dokumentene inneholdt sensitiv og konfidensiell informasjon. Vel, idag kommer dokumentene og i dag tidlig ble denne artikkelen publisert på sentralbanken (NY Fed) sine sider:

Liberty Street Economics: «Why Do Central Banks Have Discount Windows?
João Santos and Stavros Peristiani

Though not literally a window any longer, the ‘discount window’ refers to the facilities that central banks, acting as lender of last resort, use to provide liquidity to commercial banks. While the need for a discount window and lender of last resort has been debated, the basic rationale for their existence is that circumstances can arise, such as bank runs and panics, when even fundamentally sound banks cannot raise liquidity on short notice. Massive discount window borrowing in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attack on the United States clearly illustrates the importance of a discount window even in a modern economy. In this post, we discuss the classical rationale for the discount window, some debate surrounding it, and the challenges that the ‘stigma’ associated with borrowing at the discount window poses for the effectiveness of the discount window.»

Dette er starten på artikkelen, som fortsetter med utgreing om historien til rabattvinduet og ytterligere argumenter for hvorfor det er viktig med ett rabattvindu.

Ikke tilfeldig.

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USA vekst nedjustert. Fra 4% til 2,3%. Ikke bra.

Via David Leonhardt i NY Times:

Higher oil prices, government layoffs, Japan’s devastation and Europe’s debt woes are all working against the recovery. Already, a prominent research firm founded by a former Fed governor, Macroeconomic Advisers, has downgraded its estimate of economic growth in the current quarter to a paltry 2.3 percent, from 4 percent. The Fed’s own forecasts, notes that former governor, Laurence Meyer, “have been incredibly optimistic.”

Dette er ikke bra. Alle avgjørelser med utgangspunkt i at vekstoppgangen etter finanskrisen hadde bitt seg fast, er mer eller mindre defekte. Inflasjonsbekymringene om at for løs pengepolitikk skulle presse inflasjonen langt over målet er defekte. Alle scenarioer for fremtiden, som inkluderer forventninger om økonomisk vekst, må nedjusteres. Ikke bra.

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Irsk finansminister forbereder ‘signifikant’ restrukturering av banksektoren. For i morgen smeller det.

Michael Noonan 757602t
‘Alles’ øyne er på Irland i morgen. Resultatene av stresstestene som ECB har gjort vil har stor betydning for hvor startporten i reformplanleggingen skal plasseres. Egenkapitalkravene og verdisettingen av aktiva vil gi oss lesere en viss formening om hvor mye penger både sentralbanken og den irske stat må ut med for å holde bankene flytende.

Update: Her er NTB meldingen, som siterer Irish Independent og et mulig 20-25 mrd euro stort hull.

Her er The Irish Times:

Noonan to propose ‘radical’ bank sector restructuring – The Irish Times – Thu, Mar 31, 2011: THE MINISTER for Finance will propose a ground-breaking restructuring of the banks today as the results of Central Bank stress tests will signal the virtual nationalisation of the Irish banking sector.

The results of the tests will lead Michael Noonan to undertake ‘a radical new approach’ to fix the banks, a Government source said.

Mr Noonan will make a ‘watershed’ argument for a EU-wide solution around passing bank losses on to bondholders in response to the tests on Bank of Ireland, AIB, Irish Life and Permanent and EBS building society. Government colleagues last night described it as the first radical policy departure from the previous Fianna Fail-led government.

The Minister will speak for 20 minutes in the Dáil immediately after the announcement of the test results by the Central Bank.

Mr Noonan told Fine Gael TDs and Senators at the party’s parliamentary party meeting last night that the test results would be of major significance and would dominate the news over the weekend.

The results are expected to push Irish Life and Permanent and Bank of Ireland into majority Government control, given the cash requirements they will face. The tests assess the ability of the banks to cover losses arising from unanticipated shocks in the economy.

The banks are expected to require a further €18 billion to €23 billion, pushing the cost of bailing out the banks to well in excess of €60 billion.

This will be the fifth attempt to recapitalise the banks, which have so far cost the State €46 billion.

Bank of Ireland, which is already 36 per cent State owned, has intensified efforts to sell more international businesses in an attempt to reduce the potential size of Government ownership. The bank, which is valued on the market at about €1 billion, may require between €4 billion and €5 billion based on estimated losses under the tests.

Share trading in the State’s two main banks, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks, will be temporarily suspended today, pending the stress test results this afternoon and any subsequent related announcements by the banks.

The Central Bank sought the suspension ‘to avoid the possibility of a disorderly market due to the circulation of information or rumours during the day’.

Shares in Irish Life and Permanent were suspended yesterday morning after it emerged the company is expected to cede majority control to the Government due to the severity of the tests. The company – the only Government-guaranteed bank to avoid taking State cash – is expected to sell its profitable pensions and investments business, Irish Life, to raise cash to cover losses at its banking business Permanent TSB.

Irish Life and Permanent is expected to require more than €3 billion – about 30 times its market value – to meet worst-case mortgage losses estimated in the tests.

The proposed sale of building society EBS to the Cardinal private equity group was halted yesterday after the Government said the consortium’s bid was ‘not sufficiently commercially attractive’ to the State.

The sale process was ended by the National Treasury Management Agency, which manages the Government’s interests in the banking sector, after 15 months of negotiations between the parties.

Cardinal had planned to invest €600 million in EBS but the Government was uncomfortable with the potential cost of future unexpected losses under its proposal. The Cardinal consortium expressed its ‘extreme disappointment’ at Mr Noonan’s decision.

EBS is expected to require about €1 billion, while worst-case losses under the stress tests could push AIB’s bailout significantly higher than its existing €4.7 billion bill.

The requirements of the banks may still change given that talks between the Central Bank and the banks were continuing last night.

BlackRock, the consultants hired by the Central Bank to verify the tests, have used mortgage losses in the US state of Nevada, one of the worst-hit in the subprime crisis, to assess Irish losses.

Senior European sources said last night that the final scope of the tests was a ‘done deal’ following prolonged talks between the Central Bank and the bailout troika of the European Central Bank, the EU Commission and the IMF.

ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet chaired a teleconference meeting of the bank’s governing council from China yesterday to discuss the situation in the Irish banks. A further meeting may be held today as the ECB finalises its response.»

(Foto: Independent.ie)

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Dagens bilde 30. mars: Hvis besøk hos MIT, ta med likningene dine.

Alumni Austin Frakt holdt foredrag ved MIT og er sikker på èn ting:

If you go to MIT, bring your equations:

I don’t get back to MIT much, so it was fun to visit today. Here’s the first thing I saw upon entering my old lab, the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems:

Yes, MIT is really like that.

Oh, my talk on health care costs went well, and I enjoyed giving it. I didn’t present any equations, so it is possible some in the room were disappointed. Luckily, they didn’t seem upset about it. However, had they wanted to test my cred, I had this paper full of equations in my bag ready to go. You really never know when an MIT crowd will turn on you, demanding to see your equations.

Never go to MIT without equations. Never.

(Via The Incidental Economist (Posts).)

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Gråsoner, og menneskene som lever der. Harvard edition.

For de av dere som har sett ‘Inside Job’, nylig vinner av en Oscar for beste dokumentar, skal jeg terpe litt på de siste 20 minuttene av den filmen. De av dere som ikke har sett den, ikke løp ennå, alt forklares nå. Også er jeg rimelig sikker på at en utveksling med Harvard ikke kommer til å skje (aldri si aldri?), så vi kjører på:

I slutten av filmen spår produsentene rektor ved Harvard som det ikke finnes noen interessekonflikter mellom Harvard ansatte og jobber de påtar seg utenfor universitetet. I tillegg, er det ikke problematisk at artikler forfattes, ofte med kompensasjon, og at dette dokumenteres i det ferdige produktet. Det enkle svaret fra rektor var; nei. Rektor ved London School of Economics gikk nylig av etter at det ble kjent at han hadde mottatt donasjoner fra en veldedighet kontrollert av Moammar Gaddafi. Ca. 15 millioner.

Nå kommer det mer om Harvard gutta, og jeg anbefaler å ta noen minutter av dagen på denne:

Economic Principals » Blog Archive » A Recent Exercise in Nation-Building by Some Harvard Boys: Porter became a rising star in the Reagan administration; a frequent consultant to governments around the world in the 1990s; proprietor (with Jeffrey Sachs, of Columbia University), of a Global Competitiveness Report; a peripatetic adviser to corporations large and small; and, by 2000, the single most famous professor at the Harvard Business School. He advised presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2007. Here he is addressing the National Governor’s Association last month about budget balancing.

But there is also all that Libyan oil and money. The sovereign wealth fund at its peak was worth $70 billion or so, all of it operating under the indirect control of Saif Khadafy. Income from Libya’s oil production is as much as $40 billion a year. The US eased its sanctions on Libya in April 2004, permitting US companies to bid on Libyan oil and gas for the first time in twenty years, sparking considerable interest in a country whose plentiful reserves can cost as little as $1/bbl to lift. Libya’s “new dawn” would be well lubricated, in any event. Porter and Yergin signed on to coach the country less than a year later.

In a statement last week, Monitor wrote that “just a few years ago many saw a period of promise in Libya.” That was certainly true in Cambridge. What dissenting Libyans in Tripoli witnessed was a parade of well-paid visitors flattering their half-mad dictator, and a squad of Harvard-connected consultants bent on creating a National Security Organization for the government, designed to augment the existing security apparatus with a new corps of MBA-trained personnel officers.

I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for Porter to give some evidence of contrition about his mission to Tripoli. Sir Howard Davies may have resigned as director of the LSE (“The short point is that I am responsible for the school’s reputation and that has suffered”), but being a Harvard professor apparently means never having to say you’re sorry. Perhaps instead the university will find some way to rein in on its professors’ more self-serving ambitions.

Dette er slutten av artikkelen, les hele hos economicprincipals.com.

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Stresstester av banker pågår, forsikringsselskaper er neste sier Finanstilsynet.

Stresstest.pngDet europeiske firkløveret, The European Banking Authority (EBA), European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), the European Commission (EC) og the European Central Bank (ECB) har nok å gjøre for tiden. I skrivende stund utføres stresstester på et utvalg banker, de samme som ble testet forrige gang, men vi skal la banker være banker for ett øyeblikk. (Hvis du absolutt vil vite mer, gå til EBA sin ‘stresstest side’)

For, i en pressemelding fra Finanstilsynet står det:

Den europeiske tilsynsmyndigheten for forsikring og tjenestepensjon (EIOPA) har satt i gang en stresstest for det europeiske forsikringsmarkedet i samarbeid med nasjonale tilsynsmyndigheter. Stresstesten skal omfatte minimum 50 prosent av forsikringsmarkedene målt i premieinntekter i hvert enkelt land, inkludert Norge.

Det er ett år siden de gjorde den samme testen, og i denne sammenvevde verden vi lever i er å skaffe seg oversikt en god ting. Hva vil EIOPA med denne testen sier du?

Building on the experience of the 2009/10 exercise and taking into account new EU regulatory requirements, the aim of this exercise is to test whether the insurance sector in the European Union will be able to meet the minimum capital requirement even after applying well defined stress scenarios. The Solvency II capital requirements already are based on a certain level of prudence for similar risks. For example, groups and undertakings will be required to hold capital at a level so that they can absorb a significant decline in equity prices (based, as much as possible, on the QIS5-Technical Specifications, although reasonable approximations and proxies may be used, where necessary.

In addition to these asset-related stresses, this exercise includes insurance-related shock scenarios in order to test the resilience of the sector to catastrophic or severe insurance events.

This exercise should also be seen as a precursor for the development of a future comprehensive stress test framework in accordance with the EIOPA regulation.

Det nye rammeverket for reguleringer av banker, Basel III, er på vei og forsikringsbransjen følger like etter. Ordbruken er kraftig, ‘to test the resilience of the sector to catastrophic or severe insurance events’, men det er ingen vei utenom. Bildet over er tatt fra Excel-arket som sendes rundt til forsikringsselskapene. I ett annet Excel-ark spør de om det obligatoriske:
Screen shot 2011 03 28 at 18 13 40

Resultatene skal være klare i juli i år.

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Research, research og mer research i New Delhi.

Charminar hyderabad india photo
Ambassaderåd Eva Bratholm gir tips til aspirerende aspiranter: Research, research, research!

Beretningen om et varslet besøk | New Delhi

Det er slike møter som kan sette fart i prosesser og åpne for løsninger. Derfor ligger det timer, uker og noen ganger måneders arbeid forut for et besøk. Jeg må innrømme at det tok litt tid å forstå dette, men med ett har man det i blodet.

Neste uke kommer statssekretær Espen Barth Eide til India. Han skal blant annet åpne et seminar om FNs fredsbevarende operasjoner, et område hvor lille Norge og store India har mye praktisk kunnskap å lære av hverandre. Han har et forrykende program hvor både indiske topp-politikere og fredsaktivister inngår.

Alt er nøye forberedt. Du verden, så forberedt det er. Én ting er logistikk, i form av biler, parkeringsplasser og bagasje, men det aller viktigste er oppdaterte, korrekte, kortfattede, poengerte og interessante bakgrunnsnotater, samtalepunkter og ikke minst: Hva kan man vente at motparten vil ta opp?

For selv den flinkeste og mest beleste politiker kan ikke få med seg absolutt alt over hele verden. Hva er for eksempel situasjonen for cricket-kampene mellom India og Pakistan? Viktig informasjon.

Bakgrunnen til mennesker man skal møte er også svært viktig. Tidligere verv, utdannelse og har han eller hun vært i Norge? Den besøkende skal slippe å komme i noen form for pinlig situasjon og da er ambassadens forarbeid godt å ha.

(Via Norge i verden.)

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